Climate Predictions And Contradictions – Changing With The Wind.

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If I learned anything about climate change and global warming over the last decade, continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause North American winters to be warmer with less snow. Here is a NASA press release, circa 1999:

“Why are winters warming up so much faster over Northern Hemisphere continents than over the rest of the globe? A new study by NASA researchers in the June 3 issue of the journal Nature is the first to link the well-documented large degree of North America and Eurasia winter warming and the associated wind changes to rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere….

Note that one of the papers used in this statement was written by RealClimate’s Gavin Schmidt. The statement doesn’t say “less snow”, but this one does:

“Global warming will cause major changes to the climate of the U.S. Northeast if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, scientists said today. Warmer annual temperatures, less snow, more frequent droughts and more extreme rainstorms are expected if current warming trends continue, the scientists said in a new study, and time is running out for action to avoid such changes to the climate.”

As stated by the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) and  the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) in 2006.

So, it’s clear that climate change means warmer winters and less snow.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,”

Said in 2000 by East Anglia Senior Climate Researcher Dr David Viner.

One more:

“New research from UNH’s Climate Change Research Center’s Cameron Wake and his former graduate student Elizabeth Burakowski confirms what anyone enjoying today’s balmy temperatures might suspect: In the northeast, winters are indeed getting warmer. The duo conducted the most rigorous analysis to date of wintertime climate data in the northeastern U.S. from 1965 to 2005 and published their work recently in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres.”
“Winter is warming faster than any other season and what we’re seeing over time is an intensification of this warming trend,”….

OK. You get the picture. Climate change means warmer, dryer winters.

To make sure you understand, lets review :

“Cold and snowy winters will be the rule, rather than the exception,”

Just as we said before…. uhm… what? Wait. That must be a misquote….

That is why the Eastern United States, Northern Europe and East Asia have experienced extraordinarily snowy and cold winters since the turn of this century. Most forecasts have failed to predict these colder winters, however, because the primary drivers in their models are the oceans, which have been warming even as winters have grown chillier. They have ignored the snow in Siberia . . . The reality is, we’re freezing not in spite of climate change but because of it.

Oh, come on! You were just saying warmer, less snow….

The overall warming of Earth’s northern half could result in cold winters, new research shows.

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Well Crap! You spent the last decade predicting warmer, less snowy winters! What changed???

The Weather…. That’s what changed!

And it changed FIRST! These “colder winter / more snow” pronouncements are reactive, not predictive in any way. Since so much of climate science rests on predicting / projecting future weather and climate changes, and the perils of such, this is not a minor issue. If this were any other field of science, there would be plenty of acknowledgements that the prevailing thinking was in error. That would happen in the field of medicine, in physics, and in geology.  I simply find it astonishing that the climate science community can double back on a decades worth of predictions without even uttering a “Oops, we had it wrong”. But, of course, they don’t have to, because anything that happens is due to human induced climate change.

Hat Tip: N. C. Times.

1 Comment to “Climate Predictions And Contradictions – Changing With The Wind.”

  1. By Jeff Alberts, February 5, 2011 @ 1:57 am

    “Global warming will cause major changes to the climate of the U.S. Northeast if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, scientists said today. Warmer annual temperatures, less snow, more frequent droughts and more extreme rainstorms are expected if current warming trends continue, the scientists said in a new study, and time is running out for action to avoid such changes to the climate.”

    If it’s “global” warming, why will it cause changes only in the US northeast? Ah, because it’s not CO2-driven, but politically-driven. Lotsa liberals in the northeast…

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